Impacts of Ongoing Land-Use Change on Watershed Hydrology and Crop Production Using an Improved SWAT Model

The southern Ogallala Aquifer continues to deplete due decades of irrigation with minimal recharge. Recently enacted regulations limiting groundwater withdrawals and the potential for farm profitability cotton production systems indicate driving forces increased acreage in Northern High Plains Texas (NHPT). This study focused on evaluating land-use change from corn or winter wheat under dryland conditions Palo Duro watershed (PDW) NHPT using an improved Soil Water Assessment Tool (SWAT) model. Land-use irrigated led reductions average (2000–2014) annual irrigation, actual evapotranspiration (ETa), surface runoff by 21%, 7%, 63%, respectively. Nevertheless, replacement caused ETa increase 46% 18%, conversion showed 0.1% 15% decreases runoff, More than 40% simulated yields were found when planting area was moving northward cooler NHPT. ongoing land use provided option lengthen water availability irrigation.